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After one of the most aggressive rate hike cycles in history helped to bring inflation down closer to the Bank of Canada (BoC) target, the BoC has shifted its focus towards growth which has led to the start of monetary policy easing.

The global outlook summary highlights the top-level findings of Vanguard’s full economic and market outlook, Beyond the Landing, to be distributed in mid-December.

History suggests that investors shouldn’t be concerned about material asset return differences under different political administrations. A portfolio of 60% equities and 40% fixed income has produced an annual compound return of 8.1% since 1860 with a Republican president and a 7.8% annual compound return with a Democratic president.

A globally diversified portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds declined about 16% in 2022—a painful period for balanced investors that raised doubts about the viability of this strategy*.  Some commentators even declared the old standby dead.

As we approach the end of 2024, the outlook for the Canadian economy includes a strong possibility of further rate cuts and below-trend growth.

A recent rapid decline in its money supply highlights deflationary concerns in China. The GDP deflator, a broad, inflation-adjusted measure of economic output, has been negative for five consecutive quarters. Judging by recent experiences in the United States and Japan, China will be challenged in its efforts to lift barely positive consumer inflation closer to the People’s Bank of China’s 3% target.

Implementing an investment strategy is often presented as a choice based on whether a fund is labeled “active” or “index.” Those labels are important, as they convey pertinent information about funds. However, I believe it’s more important that investors consider the characteristics behind those labels. Doing so can strengthen investors’ conviction about why they might include active and index funds in their investment plan and can increase their chances of success.

In this research note, we outline three aspects of cash that investors’ objectives tend to align to: returns, relation to inflation, and volatility levels. We also share our framework for assisting investors in considering cash for financial planning and strategic asset allocation.

Investments in AI are unlikely to ward off a near-term U.S. economic slowdown or justify rich stock valuations.

Bonds are back, but the prospect of falling rates isn’t the only reason—yield income is higher, too.

The Canadian economy faces a challenging H2 as it battles below-trend growth and tackles the last mile of the inflation target

Remember the soft landing versus hard landing debate last year? As we’ve avoided recession but seen insufficient progress in the inflation fight, neither camp appears to have been correct.